The conflict between PMC Wagner and the Russian government had its roots in Syria back in 2017, predating the recent armed rebellion in June against the Russian military. Wagner forces, operating alongside Syrian loyalist troops, played a crucial role in furthering Russian interests in Syria. However, their association with the Russian army became strained due to perceived negligence and lack of support, leading to substantial losses among Wagner units.
The first major clash occurred during the battle for Palmyra in 2016-2017 when Russian military support was reportedly inadequate, resulting in significant casualties for Wagner forces. Another critical point of contention emerged in February 2018 when Wagner troops were directed to attack Kurdish forces supported by the US without the air protection promised by the Russian military. In this attack, Wagner suffered heavy losses, leading to a sense of betrayal by the Russian government.
The discord between Wagner and the Russian government escalated over time, involving disputes on various issues, including Russian military intervention in Syria, which halted Wagner’s recruitment of Syrian personnel. In 2022, the Russian army’s support to Chechnya during clashes with Wagner forces further strained the relationship.
After an attempted coup by Yevgeny Prigozhin, senior Russian officers were dispatched to Syria to contain Wagner troops and prevent a broader mutiny against the government. Wagner fighters in Syria were surrounded by Russian military police, some joined Russian forces, and others were transferred to Belarus. The areas under Wagner’s control were handed over to Iranian militias.
Although some experts believe Wagner forces are still present in Syria, their future in the region remains uncertain. The complex and volatile situation in Syria, involving various militias and foreign interests, leaves room for potential armed rebellions and further uncertainties for both Wagner and the Syrian regime.