For the past two weeks, the Maritimes have enjoyed a prolonged period of exceptionally fair weather, thanks to a persistent high-pressure ridge. However, the region is now bracing for a significant shift in weather patterns over the upcoming weekend, characterized by the approach of a weather front from the west and the looming presence of post-tropical storm Philippe from the south.
This convergence of weather systems is poised to bring conditions typically associated with a fall storm, and residents are preparing for potential disruptions on Sunday.
Tropical Storm Philippe’s Current Status
As of the latest reports, Tropical Storm Philippe is positioned approximately 130 km east of St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands. It boasts maximum sustained winds near the storm’s center estimated to be around 75 km/h, with Philippe steadily moving northwest at a rate of 16 km/h.
Forecast for Philippe
According to the official forecast track provided by the U.S. National Hurricane Center, Philippe is expected to progress northward, making its way toward the vicinity of Bermuda as a tropical storm by Friday. Subsequently, Philippe is anticipated to transition into a post-tropical storm as it approaches the Maritimes on Sunday. This transition will likely coincide with the arrival of a weather front from the west, ushering in typical fall storm conditions for the Maritimes.
Storm Strength and Potential Impact
Philippe’s strength, however, does not rival that of storms like Fiona or Dorian. The storm is currently assessed with an 80 percent chance of maintaining tropical storm strength, with a 20 percent chance of briefly reaching Category 1 hurricane strength as it moves north. Nonetheless, it is highly probable that Philippe will complete its transformation into a post-tropical storm before impacting the Maritimes, similar to the characteristics of a Nor’easter, albeit without snow.
In terms of potential weather impact, there is a risk of Philippe delivering variable yet impactful conditions to the Maritimes on Sunday. This includes the possibility of some areas receiving rainfall accumulations exceeding 50 mm or more and the potential for wind gusts reaching speeds of 90 km/h or higher. At this stage, specific areas at greatest risk for heavy rain or strong winds cannot be definitively determined.
Additionally, the potential for coastal wave action affecting the Maritimes is under consideration, although preliminary assessments suggest that it may be less pronounced compared to past events, such as with Tropical Storm Lee. Notably, this weekend does not coincide with a Full or New Moon, reducing the tidal cycle’s peak and, consequently, the impact of coastal wash and erosion.
As the situation continues to evolve, residents in the Maritimes are advised to stay vigilant, monitor weather updates closely, and make necessary preparations for the potential arrival of post-tropical storm Philippe during the Thanksgiving weekend.