The latest ballot numbers and seat projections from Nanos Research indicate that the federal Conservatives maintain a significant lead over the Liberals, raising concerns for the latter in key areas like Metro Vancouver and the Greater Toronto Area. Here’s a breakdown of the findings:
Voter Support:
As of today, the Conservatives command a 15-point lead, securing 40% of the ballot support, while the Liberals lag behind at 24.7%. This represents a notable shift, with the Conservatives gaining 6.3 percentage points since the 2021 election, whereas the Liberals have experienced a 7.9-point decline.
Election Outcome:
Nik Nanos, chair of Nanos Research, asserts that if an election were held today, a Conservative majority government would likely prevail, emphasizing the party’s continued dominance.
Preferred Prime Minister:
Surveying party leaders, 35.1% of respondents favor Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as their preferred choice for prime minister. Incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau trails at 20.8%, followed by NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh at 13.8%, Green Party Co-Leader Elizabeth May at 4.3%, and Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party at 2.2%.
Seat Projections:
Toronto and Ottawa:
Traditionally a Liberal stronghold, Toronto faces potential shifts towards the Conservatives, especially in the 905 region outside the city. Even in downtown Toronto, considered a stronghold, the NDP is positioned to make gains. Suburban areas of Ottawa also show tough competition, with some ridings potentially flipping to the Conservatives.
British Columbia:
In Metro Vancouver, where the Liberals previously held sway, tough battles are expected against both the Conservatives and the NDP. Nanos suggests Vancouver will be a significant battleground. Additionally, the Conservatives could make gains in the rest of British Columbia, reversing the NDP’s 2021 victories in Vancouver Island and northwestern B.C.
Montreal:
The Nanos projections indicate minimal change in the Island of Montreal, with the Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois maintaining their strongholds. A potential seat shift may occur between the Liberals and the NDP.
Maritimes:
Liberals face challenges in the Maritimes, with projections showing potential losses in P.E.I. and uncertainty in Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Notably, even traditionally Liberal strongholds like Shediac, N.B., are too close to call, indicating potential shifts in support.