A new research study has projected that the global number of people suffering from diabetes will more than double to 1.3 billion by 2050. The findings reveal that every country worldwide will witness an increase in the prevalence of this chronic disease, highlighting the profound impact of structural racism and inequalities between nations. Currently, an estimated 529 million individuals are living with diabetes, with type 2 diabetes accounting for 95% of cases. However, this number is expected to surpass 1.3 billion within the next 30 years, as reported in the Lancet journal.
The study identified various factors contributing to the rise in diabetes cases. High body mass index (BMI), often associated with overweight individuals, was found to be linked to more than half of diabetes-related deaths and disabilities. Additionally, lifestyle factors such as diet, physical activity, smoking, and alcohol consumption played significant roles in the disease’s prevalence. Lead research scientist Liane Ong from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation () highlighted the shift in dietary habits across different countries over the past few decades. Traditional food habits, including the consumption of fruits, vegetables, and healthier greens, have given way to highly processed foods, potentially contributing to the diabetes epidemic.
The research also highlighted the widening gap in diabetes rates among different populations. By 2045, it is estimated that three-quarters of adults with diabetes will reside in low- and middle-income countries. Furthermore, even in affluent countries like the United States, diabetes rates were found to be nearly 1.5 times higher among minority groups such as black, Hispanic, Asian, or Native Americans. A separate study published in the Lancet attributed this disparity to systemic issues such as racist policies and residential segregation. These factors directly impact where individuals live, their access to healthy food, and healthcare services, resulting in a cascade of widening diabetes inequity, according to study co-author Leonard Egede from the Medical College of Wisconsin.
Addressing the diabetes epidemic requires comprehensive and sustained efforts. Liane Ong emphasized that no single intervention can solve the problem entirely. Instead, combating diabetes demands long-term planning, investment, and global attention from all countries. The Lancet, in an accompanying editorial, stated that the world has failed to fully comprehend the social nature of diabetes and has underestimated its true scale and threat. The journal emphasized that diabetes will be a defining disease of this century, highlighting the urgent need for collective action to address this global health challenge.