Statistics Canada has announced plans to revise how it counts non-permanent residents (NPRs) in Canada after a report from CIBC Capital Markets suggested that the agency has been undercounting NPRs by nearly one million individuals.
The CIBC report, authored by Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC, claimed that the 2011 census undercounted NPRs by more than 40%. Although this gap has narrowed over the years, the report argued that there is still a shortfall of approximately 250,000 people. According to the 2021 census, there were roughly 925,000 NPRs in Canada, while the quarterly estimate suggested a count of 1.17 million.
Tal’s report emphasized the impact of this undercounting on Canada’s housing crisis. It pointed out that inaccurate population data leads to poor construction planning, exacerbating the housing shortage. For instance, official forecasts in 2013 predicted a Canadian population of 38.7 million by 2023, while the actual figure is closer to 40.2 million. This discrepancy translates into more than two years’ worth of housing construction capacity, according to Tal.
The report also highlighted the shortcomings of Statistics Canada’s practice of assuming that temporary residents leave the country within 30 days after their visas expire. Many temporary residents, particularly international students, choose to remain in Canada after their original visas expire. The report cited a 2021 survey by the Canadian Bureau of International Education, which revealed that 60% of international students planned to apply for permanent residency.
Statistics Canada responded to the report, acknowledging the challenges of accurately counting NPRs in censuses. The agency stated that it conducts rigorous coverage studies after each census to estimate the level of coverage for NPRs and other groups. StatCan emphasized that recent studies conducted in the summer of 2023 indicate a high level of quality and consistency in their estimates.
In response to the CIBC report, Statistics Canada will release new non-permanent resident data tables starting on September 27, with counts using the revised methodology dating back to 2021 numbers.