The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has raised its forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a higher level of activity than initially anticipated.
The updated forecast now projects the possibility of 14 to 21 named storms, with winds reaching at least 39 mph, of which 6 to 11 could escalate into hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or greater. Within this range, two to five of the hurricanes could become major hurricanes, characterized by winds exceeding 111 mph.
This hurricane season has already seen an active start, with five storms reaching tropical storm strength since June 1, including one hurricane. In an average season, there would typically be 14 named storms, underscoring the heightened activity thus far.
NOAA’s Matthew Rosencrans highlighted the key climate factors influencing this year’s hurricane activity, specifically citing the ongoing El Nino and the warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which has resulted in record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Given these factors, the updated outlook projects more activity, prompting NOAA to issue a call for preparedness among the public as the season continues.
In a significant development, the National Hurricane Center introduced a new storm forecasting model called the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System in July. This model has demonstrated a 10%-15% improvement in predicting storm tracks and is more accurate in forecasting storm intensity.
Additionally, Colorado State University researchers also issued a forecast in July, predicting an above-average hurricane season with at least four major hurricanes and a total of 18 named storms.
While El Nino typically leads to atmospheric conditions that diminish tropical storm activity during the Atlantic hurricane season, this year has seen a departure from that pattern. The limiting conditions associated with El Nino have been slow to develop, leading climate scientists to forecast that the factors restraining tropical cyclone activity may not be significant for much of the remaining hurricane season.
It’s worth noting that in July, coastal water temperatures in Florida reached a historic high of 101.1 degrees Fahrenheit. Warmer ocean temperatures contribute to the intensification of storms.
The Atlantic hurricane season is scheduled to continue through November 30, prompting a reminder for residents in affected regions to stay vigilant and prepared.