During Yevgeny Prigozhin’s brief uprising against the Russian government, a French warship embarked on its inaugural journey to the Baltic Sea. The frigate Auvergne arrived in Helsinki on June 24, exhibiting solidarity with Finland, NATO’s newest member. This deployment, located a mere 190 miles from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hometown of St. Petersburg, likely aimed to showcase France’s renewed commitment to the Western alliance after years of ambivalence.
As leaders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) gear up for their gathering in Vilnius, French President Emmanuel Macron is striving to make up for lost time. Macron, who previously made headlines with his comment about NATO’s “brain death,” has changed his tone since Russia’s invasion, which underscored the alliance’s role in safeguarding European nations.
In the aftermath of domestic riots this month, Macron aims to accelerate the eastward expansion of both NATO and the European Union (EU) by facilitating Ukraine’s path to membership. In a recent speech, the once-skeptical president abandoned France’s longstanding resistance to extending the Western security umbrella and advocated for enhanced coordination between NATO and the EU in defense matters.
Macron stated at a conference in Bratislava on May 31, “The question isn’t whether or not we should expand, or even when we should do it — to me, it’s as quickly as possible — but how we should do it.”
A French diplomat noted that the 45-year-old president recognized the importance of being on the right side of history. However, Macron still has work to do to solidify this stance. Rym Momtaz, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, acknowledged the significance of Macron’s message but emphasized the need to observe if it translates into a new strategic direction.
For years, Macron embraced his role as a successor to French leaders like Charles De Gaulle and Jacques Chirac, who maintained a certain distance from the US-led NATO alliance. Macron even extended a warm welcome to Putin in 2017, raising concerns, and shortly before the invasion, he mentioned the potential “Finlandization of Ukraine” to appease Moscow, discarding the prospect of EU or NATO membership.
Bloomberg’s anonymous sources, including senior European officials, expressed surprise and skepticism regarding Macron’s apparent change in perspective. Some considered his speech as mere rhetoric, doubting his plans to broker peace negotiations alongside China, given his previous unsuccessful attempts to dissuade Putin from attacking Ukraine. Others speculated that Macron had come to realize the futility of engaging with Putin.
However, others emphasized the significance of Macron’s shift. By aligning France with Ukraine’s staunchest supporters, such as Poland and the Baltic states, Macron is filling the void left by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s more cautious approach. A German official acknowledged the substantial shift, which creates a new alliance between France and the eastern European states at a time when friction between Paris and Berlin is growing.
Benjamin Haddad, a lawmaker from Macron’s party who has worked for the Washington-based think-tank Atlantic Council, highlighted the importance of diversifying partnerships beyond the Franco-German relationship. He noted that smaller countries can amplify France’s power and influence.
According to diplomats, Macron has actively lobbied behind the scenes for Ukraine to commence the EU accession process, signaling a departure from his reticence over Albania and North Macedonia in 2018. French diplomats have also engaged with their counterparts from eastern European countries, a development that has been acknowledged by some within the region. Additionally, France is considering increasing its diplomatic staff in eastern Europe.
French officials express confidence that Kyiv will meet the conditions to begin EU accession talks by year-end, while emphasizing that Ukraine will not receive special treatment.
Nevertheless, discussions on incorporating Ukraine into the EU have sparked debates on fundamental changes to the EU’s decision-making process and reducing the potential for individual members to exert disproportionate influence. This process will take years, and the outcome remains uncertain.
Similarly, the Russian occupation of significant portions of southern and eastern Ukraine complicates the NATO membership debate. European diplomats argue that simply commencing the accession process will spur economic reforms in Kyiv and provide a clear pathway to NATO membership, boosting Ukrainian morale while sending a message to the Moscow government, which is striving to regain confidence after Prigozhin’s mutiny.
Macron has called on Europeans to offer bilateral security guarantees to Ukraine at the NATO summit, providing the country with protection until NATO membership can be secured. He suggests that this support could be modeled on the way the US supports Israel.
Additionally, France has agreed to send Scalp missiles (also known as Storm Shadows), developed in collaboration with the UK, to Ukraine, according to a French diplomat. Macron has been credited with being one of the first leaders to offer heavy armored vehicles and contributing to the shift in the NATO debate.
To win over skeptics and demonstrate his commitment, Macron has more work to do. France’s aid to Ukraine thus far amounts to 0.3 percent of its GDP, while Germany’s is 0.5 percent and Poland’s is 0.9 percent. One unique asset at Macron’s disposal is France’s nuclear arsenal. With the UK’s departure from the EU, France is the only nuclear power within the bloc, and Europe largely relies on the US nuclear umbrella. Discussions are underway regarding how French nuclear weapons could contribute to safeguarding the continent, potentially enhancing Ukraine’s security guarantees.
Momtaz emphasized that Macron recognizes the gravity of the historical moment facing NATO and aims to play a central and constructive role. However, he must provide tangible signs of his changed stance to bolster his public posture.