Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been pushing G20 leaders to consider some of Russia’s demands in an effort to revive a deal that permitted Ukrainian grain shipments and helped stabilize global food prices. Erdogan, who played a role in brokering the initial Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2022, is advocating for this during private meetings at the G20 summit in New Delhi.
Despite Erdogan’s efforts, it is unlikely that Turkey’s stance will sway Ukraine’s allies in the US and Europe. However, his willingness to embrace Russia’s demands highlights the diplomatic challenges he faces, given Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Turkey is keen to restore grain shipments under the UN-backed deal, which Russia exited in July. Erdogan’s recent talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Sochi, Russia, failed to persuade Russia to rejoin the agreement.
Turkey is urging world leaders to help secure insurance for Russian food and fertilizer exports through Lloyd’s of London. They are also seeking to reconnect Moscow to the SWIFT system for international payments. G20 members are expected to advocate for “immediate and unimpeded deliveries of grain, foodstuffs, and fertilizers/inputs from the Russian Federation and Ukraine.”
While the US and its allies reject Russia’s claims that sanctions are impeding Moscow’s farm exports, they have not acceded to calls to ease sanctions. Russia has turned down a UN-proposed compromise that would have established a subsidiary of the sanctioned state farm bank Rosselkhozbank and allowed it on the SWIFT system.
Turkey is urging its counterparts to consider easing some sanctions, arguing that these measures prevent Russia from importing agricultural equipment like tractors or spare parts. The uncertainty surrounding grain supplies from one of the world’s largest exporters has contributed to volatility in global wheat prices.
As the Black Sea region faces increased hostilities, Ukraine has engaged in discussions with Romania and Bulgaria about an alternative maritime route that would pass through Ukrainian and Romanian territorial waters. However, this route would only partially address the supply needs.