CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO – Hurricane Hilary, now a formidable Category 4 storm, looms off Mexico’s Pacific coast, posing a grave threat to the flood-prone city of Tijuana on the border, before making its way into Southern California as the region’s first tropical storm in 84 years.
Meteorologists have issued dire warnings of potential catastrophic flooding, mudslides, and even tornadoes across the affected areas. Although Hilary briefly lost some strength, its maximum sustained winds were still formidable at 130 mph (215 kph) in the evening, down from its earlier peak of 145 mph (230 kph). The storm was forecasted to maintain hurricane status as it approached Mexico’s Baja California peninsula on Saturday night and to weaken into a tropical storm when reaching Southern California on Sunday.
Hilary has already disrupted normal life. Major League Baseball rescheduled three Sunday games in Southern California, shifting them to Saturday as part of split doubleheaders. The National Park Service closed Joshua Tree National Park and Mojave National Preserve to prevent people from getting stranded due to flooding. Several cities in the region, including parts of Arizona, distributed sandbags to protect properties from floodwaters.
The situation is historically significant, as Southern California hasn’t witnessed a tropical storm landfall since September 25, 1939, according to the National Weather Service. A tropical storm watch has been issued for a wide area of Southern California, spanning from the coast to the interior mountains and deserts, with the U.S. National Hurricane Center cautioning about potential threats to life and property.
The latest forecasts indicate that Hilary will make landfall in a sparsely populated section of the Baja peninsula on Sunday, approximately 200 miles (330 kilometers) south of the Pacific port city of Ensenada. As it progresses northward, heavy rains are expected in Tijuana, which is particularly vulnerable to landslides and flooding due to its hilly terrain and shacks perched on cliffs with little soil stability. Additionally, numerous people, including migrants, reside in flood-prone areas, such as canals and streets.
To address the impending crisis, the city is setting up four shelters in high-risk zones and urging residents in vulnerable areas to take precautions. Montserrat Caballero Ramirez, the Mayor of Tijuana, stated, “We are a vulnerable city being on one of the most visited borders in the world and because of our landscape.”
Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for parts of the mainland and placed 18,000 soldiers on alert.
As of Friday evening, Hilary’s center was approximately 310 miles (495 kilometers) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, near the southern tip of the Baja peninsula. It was moving northwest at 12 mph (19 kph) and was anticipated to turn more toward the north.
In preparation for the storm, some schools in Cabo San Lucas were being readied as temporary shelters. Police in La Paz, the picturesque capital of Baja California Sur state, patrolled closed beaches to deter swimmers from the rough surf, and schools in five municipalities were closed.
Hilary’s trajectory suggests that it is increasingly likely to reach California early Monday while maintaining tropical storm intensity. Widespread rainfall is expected to begin as early as Saturday, according to the National Weather Service’s San Diego office.
Authorities have cautioned that Hilary could bring heavy rainfall to the southwestern United States, with estimates of 3 to 6 inches (8-15 centimeters) in certain areas and isolated amounts of up to 10 inches (25 centimeters) in parts of Southern California and southern Nevada. Such an influx of rain at this time of year is highly unusual, with experts predicting that the region may experience rains that come once in a century, and Nevada may break its all-time rainfall record.
President Joe Biden announced that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has deployed staff and resources to the region and urged everyone in the storm’s path to follow the guidance of local officials.
In Southern California, deputies from the Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department were taking to service roads with public address systems to issue warnings and encourage homeless individuals living in riverbeds to seek shelter before the storm strikes.
Janice Hahn, chair of the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, disclosed that planning for the storm had been underway for several days, including evacuation plans for Santa Catalina Island, a popular tourist destination off the coast.
Officials in Southern California have been fortifying sand berms, originally constructed to shield low-lying coastal communities from winter surf, such as in Huntington Beach, known as “Surf City USA.”
Tanner Atkinson, waiting for free sandbags in Newport Beach, remarked, “A lot of people here are excited because the waves are gonna get pretty heavy. But I mean, it’s gonna be some rain, so usually there’s some flooding and the landslides and things like that.”
SpaceX has postponed the launch of a satellite-carrying rocket from a base on California’s central coast until at least Monday, citing challenging conditions in the Pacific that could hinder rocket booster recovery.
Typically, storms tend to bypass Southern California due to prevailing winds that push them westward into the open ocean or northeastward into Mexico and other parts of the U.S. Southwest. However, experts believe that Hilary’s trajectory is unusual due to a high-pressure heat dome causing a blockage in the expected eastward path.